Day-to-Day Homicides in the nation Drop Over a Third During President Sheinbaum, According to Government Statistics

The mean figure of daily homicides per month in the country has fallen by 37% since President Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, per fresh official figures. But, security analysts have advised that murder figures might not indicate enhanced countrywide stability.

Notable Drop in Per-Day Figures

Officials reported an mean of close to 55 murders a day in last November versus almost 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum took the presidency in September of last year. This data was provided by the head of the country’s federal public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular news conference on Tuesday.

“The figures in homicides that we’ve had during these months is extremely important,” the President stated, noting that last month the lowest number of homicides were recorded for any single November in the past decade.

Historical Background and Official Strategy

Intense cartel rivalries, combined with the government’s heavily militarised operations to confront the trafficking organizations, have made Mexico’s murder rate escalate in recent times. The rate reached a record high of 36,773 homicides in 2020, per the nation's official data agency.

That resulted in Mexico a murder rate more than four times greater than the US. From that point, homicides have been on the decrease, dropping to 33,550 the previous year. The President has attributed her public safety approach for an seemingly sharper decline in killings this year.

At a press conference in August, the President declared: “We have a plan, there is oversight of the plan, and there is detailed tracking town by town in certain cases. The plan functions. And we have to keep working at it daily.”

The main components of the President's safety strategy involve:

• Strengthening Mexico’s national guard.
• Advancing intelligence and investigative work.
• Enhanced cooperation between various departments.

Analyst Warnings and Statistical Concerns

However, public safety analysts cautioned that relying on homicide statistics to draw a conclusion of improved security was flawed. This is notably true in light of the uptick in different crimes such as abductions.

“That would be excellent news if this was a reduction, but I think we must not just concentrate on the homicide numbers and think: ‘Alright, great,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexico's criminal organizations. “I would be cautiously optimistic.”

As reported by the policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, homicides overall dropped by over 20% in the first 10 months of this year versus the identical timeframe last year. Yet, missing persons cases have increased by 15% and in some regions have risen by up to 200%.

“Data on murders is not useful for estimating the context of violence,” stated Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have police and prosecutors who do not have the ability or the will to correctly identify and categorize remains. Second, organized [criminals] … have the means to mask violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas noted that using monthly averages of everyday homicides was also concerning because it could hide days when there were notably high levels of murders.

“Employing the daily mean renders spikes of violence unseen,” he concluded.

Arrests and Seizures as Metrics of Success

An area where the government can highlight the effectiveness of its security strategy is on detentions and confiscations. Close to 40,000 people were detained between last October and this past November for high-impact crimes, per official data. Over 20,000 firearms were seized and 311 tonnes of drugs confiscated.

“Donald Trump can't accuse President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because in reality she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of detentions, many thousands of confiscations, and all the operational degrading of criminal groups. It’s very in political terms advantageous,” said Vargas.

Persistent Violence and Public Anger

But despite these actions, Mexico continues to be grappling with severe bloodshed, with a number of regions in the throes of cartel-fueled violence. Last month there was a high-profile assassination of a well-liked local official in the region of Michoacan, among 10 mayors murdered in the past year.

A short time after, many thousands of youth protested in the capital and throughout the country to voice their frustration at graft and cartel violence.

“The government shares [data] in a way to build a picture of safety. From a political standpoint it’s highly potent, from a social perspective it’s highly questionable,” the analyst said.