Foreign Office Cautioned Against Military Action to Overthrow Robert Mugabe

Recently released papers reveal that the UK's diplomatic corps cautioned against British military action to remove the then Zimbabwean president, Robert Mugabe, in 2004, stating it was not considered a "viable option".

Government Documents Reveal Considerations on Addressing a "Remarkably Robust" Dictator

Internal documents from Tony Blair's government show officials weighed up options on how best to handle the "depressingly healthy" 80-year-old dictator, who declined to leave office as the country fell into violence and economic chaos.

Faced with the ruling party winning a 2005 election, and a year after the UK joined a US-led coalition to oust Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, No 10 asked the Foreign Office in July 2004 to develop potential options.

Policy of Isolation Deemed Not Working

Diplomats concluded that the UK's policy of isolating Mugabe and building an international consensus for change was failing, having failed to secure support from key African nations, notably the then South African president, Thabo Mbeki.

Options outlined in the documents included:

• "Seek to remove Mugabe by military means";
• "Go for tougher UK measures" such as freezing assets and shuttering the UK embassy; or
• "Re-open dialogue", the approach advocated by the then departing ambassador to Zimbabwe.

"We know from conflicts abroad that changing a government and/or its bad policies is almost impossible from the outside."

The diplomatic assessment rejected military action as not a "serious option," and warned that "The only candidate for leading such a armed intervention is the UK. No one else (even the US) would be prepared to do so".

Cautionary Notes of Heavy Casualties and Legal Hurdles

It cautioned that military involvement would cause significant losses and have "considerable implications" for British people in Zimbabwe.

"Short of a severe human and political disaster – resulting in widespread bloodshed, large-scale refugee flows, and regional instability – we judge that no nation in Africa would agree to any efforts to remove Mugabe by force."

The paper continues: "We also believe that any other international ally (including the US) would authorise or join military intervention. And there would be no jurisdictional basis for doing so, without an approving Security Council Resolution, which we would fail to obtain."

Long-Term Strategy Recommended

Blair's foreign policy adviser, Laurie Lee, warned him that Zimbabwe "could become a real spoiler" to his plan to use the UK's leadership of the G8 to make 2005 "a pivotal year for Africa". Lee concluded that as military action had been discounted, "it is likely necessary that we must adopt a long-term strategy" and re-engage with Mugabe.

Blair appeared to agree, noting: "We must devise a way of exposing the lies and malpractice of Mugabe and Zanu-PF ahead of this election and then subsequently, we could try to re-engage on the basis of a firm agreement."

The then outgoing ambassador, in his final diplomatic dispatch, had recommended cautious renewed contact with Mugabe, though he understood the Prime Minister "might shudder at the thought given all that Mugabe has uttered and perpetrated".

The Zimbabwean leader was ultimately removed in a 2017 coup, aged 93. Previous claims that in the early 2000s Blair had tried to pressure the South African president into joining a armed alliance to depose Mugabe were vehemently rejected by the ex-British leader.